Now that the Trump/Xi summit is in the rear view mirror, let's reflect for a bit on, let's say, the scorecard. Politics is all about keeping score anyway.
First, Xi appears to believe he can act with impunity. Since before the Iran war began, long before, actually, China has provided Iran with diplomatic backing, propaganda and economic support and targeting data. Iran possesses stockpiles of Chinese weapons, including the anti-ship cruise missiles fired at the USS Abraham Lincoln in late March. There is ample evidence that Beijing has continued resupplying the mullah's arsenals throughout the war.
One need not be especially astute to see that Xi is not especially respectful. On the surface he appears a pompous, arrogant buffoon. When foreign leaders visit Beijing, they are not viewed as peers. Charles Burton of the Sinopsis think tank stated, "To the imperial mindset, these outsiders are inferiors. Xi views himself as the modern successor to this lineage of great emperors, the concept of equal friendship with any foreign leader is completely absent from his worldview. Let's hope that Trump is smart enough to realize that his relationship with Xi is not rooted in mutual respect. Xi continually speaks of the West as in decline, he behaves as if he sets the parameters for relations with America. He does not.
Recently, Trump insisted that America and Iran were close to an agreement and, when it became apparent they were not, he pivoted by making it clear that he was not afraid of ending the ceasefire. The optics of this maneuver were not overly convincing however.
Undoubtedly, Trump can strike the regime's capabilities directly and quickly. One of the primary targets that is rarely mentioned is a rail link that links Iran and China. Tehran has reportedly been using this to send crude oil eastward and U.S. air power could sever it quickly. He could also impose a no-fly zone to block Chinese transports from replenishing Iran's munitions stockpiles.
Such moves would send Xi a clear message. Trump is not intimidated. Beyond Iran, Trump has several pressure points available to exploit, from artificial intelligence and fentanyl to Taiwan and human rights. The US remains far more powerful than China overall and has numerous strategic options for increasing pressure on China. China is more export-dependent today than it has been in decades, because the Communist Party, for political and ideological reasons, has failed to build a consumer-driven economy. China needs foreign consumers, and the United States alone accounts for roughly 30% of global consumption. Xi needs, badly needs, continued access to the U.S. market, which Trump, despite recent tariff setbacks in the courts, can still restrict through multiple avenues. He can also tighten controls on advanced microchips, which overwhelmingly come from U.S. manufacturers.
Trump could also direct Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to invoke Section 311 of the Patriot Act, which would sever Chinese Banks involved in persistent money laundering from their dollar accounts. such a move could seriously destabilize China's banking system.
China's strongest cards remain its rare-earth near-monopolies and pharmaceutical monopolies. However, Trump's policies are already effecting an erosion of Beijing's dominance over critical minerals. Doing so over pharmaceuticals will take a little longer. In contrast, China's dependence on the U.S. economically and financially are undeniable.
In spite of Xi's opinion of himself, modern China is not the economic, financial center of the world. Not even close. Though unlikely to happen, Xi should humble himself before the inevitable embarrassment sets in...
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