Operation Epic Fury, the U.S./Israeli military campaign has created some tectonic reverberations for Xi Jinping. This is owing to Xi and the CCP's belief in the dogma of inevitability. (here) The pounding Iran is currently taking is causing some profound confusion in the corridors of Chinese power.
Xi is scurrying like a rat who hasn't smelled cheese in a long time. The Iran strikes have caused big problems for China. In 2021, Xi told senior party officials that "the East is rising and the West is declining, that America was the biggest source of chaos in the present-day world." And that China was entering a period of strategic opportunity. One big problem, Iran was central to that premise. Beijing needed a defiant Iran to keep Washington rattled, to sustain a sanctions-proof energy corridor, and to stand as living proof that American power had limitations. The framework of the CCP's 'dogma of inevitability' rested on Iran's ability to endure. Epic Fury removed that foundation in a single afternoon.
Ayatollah Khamenei was key to the ideology. He was a man whom Washington had threatened, sanctioned, plotted against, and skirted for over four decades, yet he was still on a prayer rug every Friday. Xi personally signed the comprehensive strategic partnership with Khamenei's government. He personally authorized the weapons transfers. And he personally wielded the U.N. Security Council veto. None of it saved his life once Washington decided he was done.
Xi's message to his people, that America is a declining power incapable of decisive force, doesn't at all align with what happened in a matter of hours over Tehran and many sites around the country. Of course, what the public hears is only what the CCP allows them to hear, but the military planners and foreign policy officials know what they saw.
There are energy implications for China as well. China bought 1.38 million barrels per day of Iranian oil last year and take over 80% of everything Iran ships. Half of China's oil imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The Gulf's strategic balance has shifted decisively toward Saudi Arabia and the Emirates, whose energy ties with the United States have a long history and are strengthening, now that Khamenei is dead. China had an unwritten agreement to buy Iranian oil and not mention human rights. With no government at present, and a successor unknown, Gulf producers are feeling confident that they are protected by an American security guarantee that has just proved to be quite effective.
Strategically, China can neither condone nor condemn the strikes. Their only remaining option is to take cover under UN rhetoric. China's foreign ministry spokesperson called the strikes "a grave violation of sovereignty." That sounds like tough talk, but the Belt and Road countries are watching are what they are seeing so far is a confused superpower talking and American forces doing the deciding.
Chinese companies have spent billions investing in oil infrastructure and port facilities across the Gulf region. Iranian missiles aimed at Gulf States are in fact, inflicting damage to China. The Strait of Hormuz situation compounds the problem. Iran's Revolutionary Guard announced that no ship would pass through the channel, a threat intended to impact the West. The U.S. has a shale industry and the strategic petroleum reserve just for situations like this. As of March of last year, China had only filled 56% of its above ground strategic and commercial storage facilities. The Houthis have resumed attacks on Red Sea shipping, every skirmish in Iraq threatens oil concessions funded by the Chinese. Iran's resistance is effectively and profoundly disrupting Chinese interests throughout the region.
The clearest indication of Beijing's confusion is the absence of action. No diplomatic maneuvers, no military positioning, nothing. Their only reaction; a press conference. Apparently, Chinese influence in the Middle East was strategically tied to Iran, and that no one would ever question it. The tie has been broken and the influence, gone...
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