The Texas Flood

 It is inarguable that the recent Texas Food was a disaster of epic proportions. Not only did many Texans lose their lives, many of them were innocent children attending an exuberant, traditional, summer event. Many were families celebrating the Fourth of July weekend by recreating in a placid RV park located along the Guadalupe River. As they may have done for many years prior. It was in the dead of night, most were asleep. Did the sirens, radio announcements, cell phone alerts awaken them of the impending disaster? Obviously, for most, no, they did not. Did the necessary alerts actually happen? Some did. Some did not. It depends on where exactly they were along the river. Through Kendall County, where the majority of the disaster occurred, the Guadalupe stretches for 39 miles. Outdoor warning sirens are designed to be heard for one mile. One. Mile. Does any river prone to flooding have sirens located at one mile intervals anywhere in the world? No. 

The Guadalupe River experienced major floods in 1036, 1952, 1972, 1973, 1978, 1987, 1991, and 1997. Floods are not predictable. They do not follow measured cycles. As the Austin Chronicle wrote in 2015, "Unlike Houston, which experiences 'bathtub flooding' (in flat terrain, floods flatten out and become more predictable). Central Texas experiences flash flooding which makes that more impractical. When rains fall over the 'Hill Country', water runs downhill and collects in low-water crossings, streams, and rivers. Anything in its path is fair game for destruction. 

When looking at the death toll for such a horrible disaster, many ask, "Why weren't they prepared for something like this?" The river gauge closest to Camp Mystic is about five miles downstream of the camp, where the south and north forks of the Guadalupe River merge. It recorded a rise of more than 25 feet in two hours, before going silent fore the rest of the day. There are very few, if any, locations on earth that can handle a rive rising more than 25 feet in two hours without catastrophic damage and serious risk to human life. It's important to consider that this rapid rise occurred at 3 am, when most people are sound asleep. 

As horrible as the death toll is, this is likely to be the fourth-deadliest flood in Texas history, after the 1900 hurricane that hit Galveston with casualties of about 10,000. 

As the flood waters surged, media outlets rushed to blame Donald Trump and Elon Musk's DOGE Commission for budget cuts that left the National Weather Service helpless. The meteorological community soon took umbrage with the media. The local NWS was fully staffed, in fact, overstaffed, per protocol, during the storm. Warnings were sent out about twelve hours in advance, and a flash flood warning for the affected counties was issued three hours before it hit. DOGE's marginal cuts to executive branch spending - cuts not even yet ratified by the Senate, were not to blame for this catastrophe. 

Victims are never to blame. But when warnings are issued, and those in the affected areas dont act upon them, the authorities are not scapegoats. Questions remain about whether people along the river had cell service to get the 'push alerts', had alerts enabled on their phones, or were even awake to hear them. I'm loathe to say this was a  'perfect storm' so let's say 'imperfect storm'. 

There's always going to be the argument that bad things happen because of government decisions. Undoubtedly, government policy can generate different outcomes, and mitigate or exacerbate the effects of natural disasters. It's hard to envision a government policy that can mitigate the loss of life when river levels rise more than 25 feet in two hours in the middle of the night in an area that has been prone to flooding for more than a century. When most are sleeping. Do you find it in your heart to blame families that were sleeping and not listening to the radios or cell phones at 3 am? 

I dont... However regrettable... 

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