One of the more curious characteristics of human beings is our extraordinary ability to recognize the mistakes of previous generations while remaining remarkably confident that we won't repeat them. We tend to think of ourselves as more 'enlightened,' more informed, maybe just plain smarter than the generations that preceded us. We are certainly more technologically leveraged. Our economies are certainly more developed and opportunistic.
Consider the Roman Republic, the French Revolution, the American Civil War, and the Reconstruction Era. Different circumstances, different centuries, but remarkably familiar human behavior. Conflicts throughout history consistently have a common denominator; they all occurred due to a reluctance, inability, or failure to compromise. The dominating force behind all conflicts is one or more of the vile elements of human nature; greed, lust for power, over-reaching ambition, revenge, or perhaps lunacy.
Consider Russia's invasion of Crimea, then subsequently the invasion of Ukraine. What drove Putin to forcefully invade these sovereign countries causing so much destruction and loss of life? There were some geopolitical advantages to be gained. What was obvious and apparent was that the two countries were once part of the Soviet empire. And Putin had an overwhelming desire to maintain Russian influence. Crimea was relatively easy, a David and Goliath situation. Ukraine, in spite of what Putin and his thugs thought, proved to be anything but easy. Almost five years into it, and the fighting continues. Diplomatic efforts are underway, but it is more than evident Putin has little interest in ending the conflict. Ukraine has resources, but are they critical to expanding Russia's economy? What exactly are the drivers here; they include imperialism, concerns about NATO, and maintaining Russia's influence over its former territories.
Russia has suffered approximately 1.6 million casualties in the conflict. Their economy has shifted to primarily supporting the war effort. Civilian industries are facing high borrowing costs, labor shortages, and weak investment. And for what? So Putin can realize his vision of reconstituting at least some of the old Soviet Empire? Perhaps the strongest driver in this case pursuing objectives at an irrational human and economic cost...
Now let's turn to Iran. Long the world's leading sponsor of state-supported terrorism was busy enriching uranium until Trump and Netanyahu laid ruin to those ideals. Since the "war" with Iran began in February 2026, Iran has proved relentless in "not giving up." Their economy is in shambles, the citizenry is suffering with inflation the highest in the world. The value of their currency has collapsed, and there main source of revenue, oil has all but stopped. Every effort at diplomacy has failed. And for what? Do they think the U.S. and Israel will cave and give them full control of the Strait of Hormuz and allow them to build nuclear weapons as they please? Whatever else may be their motivations, there is definitely an ignorance of history and a blatant refusal to learn from it.
For both of these two examples there are numerous historical events that offer lessons regarding the likely outcomes of both conflicts. But are the leaders in either case paying any attention to those 'lessons?' Do they care? Apparently not. Perhaps it's colossal arrogance keeping them from learning. Or perhaps it's merely the persistence of human nature.
Perhaps the greatest irony is that history has never been short of warnings. The Roman Republic offers lessons about the dangers of unchecked ambition. The French Revolution reminds us what happens when revenge becomes a governing philosophy. The American Civil War demonstrates the terrible price of allowing ideological differences to become irreconcilable. And Reconstruction reminds us that ending a conflict is not the same as resolving the issues that caused it.
Yet here we are, centuries later, watching much the same human drama unfold.
Perhaps the problem isn't that we fail to recognize the lessons of history. Perhaps it's that those who hold the power to change its course are often the least inclined to acknowledge them.
Technology advances. Civilizations evolve. Economies expand. But human nature remains stubbornly resistant to improvement.
And therein lies the lesson we seem destined to learn, forget, and learn again.
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