Let's take a look at Poland, perhaps the entire world should have a look at Poland...

 In 1990, Poland's GDP was about $60 to 70 billion. At the time, it was emerging from a communist system of government. By 2024, World Bank data shows their GDP to be around $918 billion, almost $1 trillion. OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) and the IMF both describe this as a major convergence story: GDP per capital has roughly doubled since the mid-2000's. Allowing for inflation, their GDP has grown by a factor of about 14. The U.S. GDP during the same period grew by a factor of 5. 

The first phase, during the 1990's, was a difficult but decisive transition to a market economy. Poland liberalized prices, privatized many state assets, opened to trade, and built market institutions. It was a strain on the country at first, but laid the groundwork for sustained private-sector growth, foreign investment, and integration with Western Europe. By the 2000's, this restructuring had turned Poland into a faster-growing, more export-oriented economy. OECD says direct foreign investment, efficiency gains, and integration into global value chains were major drivers of the rise in incomes.  

Access to EU markets in 2004 was a major accelerator to growth. It brought in investment and EU funds, and helped modernize infrastructure and supply chains. GDP per capita rose from about 50% to 80% of the OECD average after Poland integrated into the EU economy. 

During the global financial crisis in 2009, Poland was the only EU economy to avoid recession. That resilience solidified its reputation as one of Europe's most durable growth economies and kept the long term convergence trend intact, while many European peers stalled. 

Exports of goods and services now amount to more than half of GDP according to World Bank data. Productivity growth has been supported by trade and foreign investment, with foreign demand fueling the growth. The economy has shifted further toward services and higher-value manufacturing, as advances in technology continues to support further growth. 

In 2024, Poland had one of the lowest unemployment rates in the EU, at under 3%. Living standards have risen with economic growth, though there were setbacks. Poland is still not at Western European income levels and there remain some regional inequalities. 

Today, Poland looks to be a successful EU economy and is dealing with inflation as is the rest of the world. They suffer from many of the same issues as other advanced economies, such as an aging population, a lack of innovative entrepreneurial economic drivers, and the "green transition." In 2023, 60% of electricity was generated by coal. 

A very interesting thing to note about Poland's success is how they have handled immigration during this period of economic success and growth. Poland has resisted large scale immigration from outside Europe, especially from the Middle East and Africa. During the 2015 migrant crisis, Poland refused EU quotas to accept asylum seekers. Governments emphasized border control and sovereignty. Public opinion has favored strict immigration policies compared to Western Europe. Poland has experienced significant immigration, but mostly from nearby countries, especially; Ukraine, Belarus, and Georgia. Poland avoided culturally distant, asylum-based immigration, but welcomed regional labor-based migration. After the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, Poland took in millions of Ukrainian refugees, mostly women and children. They provided access to work, schools, and healthcare. This was one of the largest humanitarian responses in modern Europe. Allowing immigration dramatically increased Poland's foreign-based population, but mostly from a culturally and geographically close country. 

Since their shift from Communist rule to a free market economy, Poland has literally shown the world what success looks like. They not only deserve a close look at their history over the past 35 years and all they have accomplished, they deserve the world's admiration. 

The Implications of Closing Hormuz.

 Several days ago, the Strait of Hormuz became an issue in the war with Iran. A very big issue. Hormuz is the single most important energy chokepoint in the world. The volume of trade moving through it is enormous, especially for oil and gas. About 20 million barrels a day moved through the Strait on average in 2024-2025. That's about 29% of global oil consumption. Global oil consumption is about 100-106 million barrels per day. So roughly one out of every five barrels used in the world, moved through that narrow passage. The strait also carries large amounts of liquefied natural gas or LNG. Around 20% of global LNG trade passes through Hormuz. 

About 100 cargo vessels per day passes through the strait. 60 to 70% of them are oil and gas tankers. The countries of Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the Emirates, Iran, and Kuwait account for over 90% of the oil that flows through the strait. The shipments primarily supply Asia, not the United States. Asia received about 89% of the oil moving through Hormuz. China alone received about 38% of those exports.

Non-energy cargo accounts for about 30 to 40% of the traffic through Hormuz. Non-energy shipments include a wide range of goods moving between Gulf ports and the rest of the world. Major container ports in the Persian Gulf ship manufactured goods and imports through the strait, especially from the United Arab Emirates. Some examples of manufactured goods include electronics, machinery, automobile parts, consumer goods, and food imports. Large quantities of bulk commodities that move through the strait include aluminum, especially from the Emirates and Bahrain, steel products, cement, fertilizers, and petrochemicals. Gulf countries import a large share of their food through the strait, such as wheat, rice, livestock feed, frozen meat and poultry. The Persian Gulf hosts several naval bases, so the strait also sees many shipments of naval resupply ships, military transports and equipment shipments. 

While energy dominates the strait's strategic importance, about a third of the shipping traffic is ordinary global trade, supplying Gulf economies and moving manufactured goods and raw materials. Based on the above information, very little energy imports to the US come through Hormuz. However, the supply for the global energy market is obviously affected. Most imported oil for the U.S. comes from Canada and Mexico. So if the U.S. supplies aren't at risk, why the rise in crude prices? Commodity traders are an easily spooked cabal, much like kindergartners. Any skirmish anywhere in the world can lead them to believe that energy supplies will be affected. It actually doesn't even require a conflict, the tone of a presidential press conference often is enough. Stable prices usually are soon to resume. 

Spikes in oil prices are bad news for everyone. Seeing the price for any necessary commodity rise substantially in a short time is not only alarming but brings hardship situations for many. And not just for Americans. People in other countries, especially China, Russia and Cuba are feeling "the squeeze" and likely much more so than Americans. Their oil supplies do move through Hormuz. Their overall economies suffer, economic growth stalls when their energy supply chains are disrupted. For Russia, financing their ill-conceived war with Ukraine becomes much more difficult. China is the world's largest oil importer. About half their oil imports come from Persian Gulf producers. China is the hardest hit economy in the world with the closing of the Strait. All major sectors in China's export economy are substantially affected. China does have emergency reserves. About 90 to 100 days worth. If you think commodity traders in the U.S. are nervous, just imagine how the Chinese traders are feeling now...

Update on the progress of the publication of my second novel

It's good! I have made significant progress is bringing my second novel to the release date. It's going to be self-published on Amazon, at least in the initial stages,  so I have to do all the formatting and prep-work for publication. It takes time. 

But I am getting close. I have a graphic artist working on the cover art so that should help in drawing attention. I am very excited and I feel very good about this book. When I started this project, which by the way has been 15 years ago, I saw it as being a "historical thriller." Now that it's complete I'd say a more accurate description of the genre is 'historical fiction'. It's still a very exciting story, it's by no means a historical accounting of events. There's plenty of suspense, drama, and action. But the setting, timeframe and many of the characters are real. Trust me, it's a great story. I'll give you a hint by revealing the title:

"Between the Whistle and the Gun"

It's very close to release, so stay with me. It'll be online very soon!

Operation Epic Fury and China, Interesting Connection...

 Operation Epic Fury, the U.S./Israeli military campaign has created  some tectonic reverberations for Xi Jinping. This is owing to Xi and the CCP's belief in the dogma of inevitability. (here) The pounding Iran is currently taking is causing some profound confusion in the corridors of Chinese power. 

Xi is scurrying like a rat who hasn't smelled cheese in a long time. The Iran strikes have caused big problems for China. In 2021, Xi told senior party officials that "the East is rising and the West is declining, that America was the biggest source of chaos in the present-day world." And that China was entering a period of strategic opportunity. One big problem, Iran was central to that premise. Beijing needed a defiant Iran to keep Washington rattled, to sustain a sanctions-proof energy corridor, and to stand as living proof that American power had limitations. The framework of the CCP's 'dogma of inevitability' rested on Iran's ability to endure. Epic Fury removed that foundation in a single afternoon. 

Ayatollah Khamenei was key to the ideology. He was a man whom Washington had threatened, sanctioned, plotted against, and skirted for over four decades, yet he was still on a prayer rug every Friday. Xi personally signed the comprehensive strategic partnership with Khamenei's government. He personally authorized the weapons transfers. And he personally wielded the U.N. Security Council veto. None of it saved his life once Washington decided he was done. 

Xi's message to his people, that America is a declining power incapable of decisive force, doesn't at all align with what happened in a matter of hours over Tehran and many sites around the country. Of course, what the public hears is only what the CCP allows them to hear, but the military planners and foreign policy officials know what they saw. 

There are energy implications for China as well. China bought 1.38 million barrels per day of Iranian oil last year and take over 80% of everything Iran ships. Half of China's oil imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The Gulf's strategic balance has shifted decisively toward Saudi Arabia and the Emirates, whose energy ties with the United States have a long history and are strengthening, now that Khamenei is dead. China had an unwritten agreement to buy Iranian oil and not mention human rights. With no government at present, and a successor unknown, Gulf producers are feeling confident that they are protected by an American security guarantee that has just proved to be quite effective. 

Strategically, China can neither condone nor condemn the strikes. Their only remaining option is to take cover under UN rhetoric. China's foreign ministry spokesperson called the strikes "a grave violation of sovereignty." That sounds like tough talk, but the Belt and Road countries are watching are what they are seeing so far is a confused superpower talking and American forces doing the deciding. 

Chinese companies have spent billions investing in oil infrastructure and port facilities across the Gulf region. Iranian missiles aimed at Gulf States are in fact, inflicting damage to China. The Strait of Hormuz situation compounds the problem. Iran's Revolutionary Guard announced that no ship would pass through the channel, a threat intended to impact the West. The U.S. has a shale industry and the strategic petroleum reserve just for situations like this. As of March of last year, China had only filled 56% of its above ground strategic and commercial storage facilities. The Houthis have resumed attacks on Red Sea shipping, every skirmish in Iraq threatens oil concessions funded by the Chinese. Iran's resistance is effectively and profoundly disrupting Chinese interests throughout the region. 

The clearest indication of Beijing's confusion is the absence of action. No diplomatic maneuvers, no military positioning, nothing. Their only reaction; a press conference. Apparently, Chinese influence in the Middle East was strategically tied to Iran, and that no one would ever question it. The tie has been broken and the influence, gone...