The "New" Assassins

 As investigators continue to dig beneath the surface and look into the online activity of some recent assassins, questions grow about how digital spaces are instigating a new wave of politically motivated attacks. At the top of the list are the Charlie Kirk Assassination and the attempted assassination of President Trump. 

A recent post from the Libs of TikTok that went viral listed several recent shootings and noted multiple suspects identified as transgender or non-binary, calling it an "epidemic of trans violence." 

Experts say those claims aren't entirely accurate. The real danger, they warn, is brewing in the dark corners of the internet such as Reddit, Discord and other chat platforms, where grievance and validation feed off one another and inspire isolated individuals toward violence. 

A former Homeland Security advisor said that assassinations have risen over the past decade and the targets are no longer limited to politicians. "We're seeing activists and media figures targeted," he said.  These are people who feel aggrieved and/or insignificant and believe they'll commit a heroic act. The Charlie Kirk case is an example of how the threat landscape has expanded. He described the online hatred as the incubator for turning the feelings of grievance into action. Here, angry participants can find each other and fan the flames. 

"Like-minded folks feed off one another in social media spaces until somebody takes the next step and decides to kill someone. That is the incipience of radicalization. As investigators dig deeper into digital evidence, they are finding similar digital footprints from other cases. The Buffalo supermarket shooter kept a private "Discord diary" according to the NY State Attorney's investigative report. 

The Uvalde gunman used the teen chat app Yubo and Instagram DM's to send disturbing messages before his attack. Previous shooters in El Paso and Christchurch posted manifestos on 8chan before live-streaming their crimes. 

The common thread according to the experts isn't gender or political identity, it's digital isolation. The radicalization pattern emerging in these shootings mirrors what agents once saw with international terror networks. "Their reasons for being radicalized are often very similar to what we saw with ISIS recruits; a mix of ideology, personal grievance, and a search for belonging." It's a slow process, happening over time as they find validation in online communities. 

Extremists exploit familiar digital environments such as gaming servers and chat apps to reach young users. Those same gaining and chat sites that were once harmless now give extremists direct access to impressionable minds. Lots of young people live in these digital spaces, making them the most vulnerable. 

A retired FBI Special Agent who has responded to multiple mass shooting scenes, said the temptation to see a demographic pattern is understandable, but misleading. "Identity does not predict violence. Trying to forecast danger based on labels alone is like trying to predict weather with a fortune cookie." The focus now, is on behavior, not biography. 

The FBI's behavioral model focuses on a pathway to violence, which includes grievance, fixation, validation in online communities, planning, and finally the "breach point" when an attacker decides violence will solve a problem. The niche forums provide people drifting toward violence anonymity, validation and a sense of belonging they lack in real life. These dark corners of the internet allow internecine evil ideals to foment. And, as we have seen in some cases, these evil ideals have lead to deadly criminal behavior. 

These environments that breed such attackers have been years in the making, from pandemic isolation to fears of automation and artificial intelligence. Add to this deep feelings of political polarization and you get people online being told they're being dismissed by society. Some, inevitably decide to act. 

There are no organized terror cells involved, these are not individuals on law enforcement's radar. There is obviously online activity, but encryption and overseas hosting complicate detection. Encrypted sites are sometimes impossible to penetrate, even with current technology. These forums provide a sense of community and tactical instruction that accelerate radicalization. And it's very well hidden.

In the Kirk shooting, escalating partisan violence was the initial suspected motive. A deep-dive into online activity revealed online relationships and personal grievance were more to blame more than ideology. Multiple experts agree that the solution lies in vigilance and connection, not profiling. The connection isn't necessarily law enforcement. Sometimes that's family, sometimes it's friends, sometimes it's faith that reminds them they're not alone.